Iraq’s Al-Maliki Wins Most Parliament Seats, Party Says

March 14, 2010 · Posted in NEWS
March 14 (Bloomberg) — Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki’s political bloc, predicting it won most seats in March 7 parliamentary elections, named a commission to hold talks with rival parties on forming a government, an official said today.

Al-Maliki’s State of Law group is leading in five of 11 Iraqi provinces, including Baghdad, the Independent High Electoral Commission reported this weekend. Results are partial as no more than 30 per cent of ballots have been reported. Seven remaining provinces have yet to release any results.

Al-Maliki’s bloc will win about one-third, “or more than 100,” seats out of the 325 at stake, Abbas al-Bayati, a State of Law candidate, said in a telephone interview in Baghdad. “We have formed a small committee to go into talks and we will make sure that we won’t close doors to anyone that wants to negotiate with us.” Osama al-Najafi, a member of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiya alliance, said his group will win 80-90 seats. “We have started communicating with other parties,” he said by phone. “The doors of dialogue are open.”

The statements track with analysts’ opinion that no party or bloc will win a majority when final votes are tallied. Contestants are generally winning in areas of core sectarian support, according to the first tallies.

‘Bargaining’

“The vote won’t produce a decisive winner and there will have to be bargaining for a ruling coalition,” Marina Ottaway, an analyst at Washington’s Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in a telephone interview.

Such uncertainty challenges President Barack Obama’s plan to reduce U.S. troop strength in Iraq from 96,000 to 50,000 by August. Violence may increase if Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds aren’t all included in a governing coalition, said Ahmed Ali, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Iraq pumped about 2.4 million barrels of crude oil a day last month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Its 115 billion- barrel reserves are behind only Saudi Arabia and Iran. The U.S., which led a 2003 invasion to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, is scheduled to pull out all its troops by the end of 2011.

State of Law, dominated by al-Maliki’s Shiite Dawa Party, is winning in southern provinces populated mainly by Shiite Muslims. A rival Shiite-led group, the Iraqi National Alliance, is leading in two southern provinces.

Iraqiya, whose candidates ran on a non-sectarian platform, is ahead in three Sunni Muslim provinces. The Kurdistan Alliance leads in a Kurdish province.

Coalition negotiations could last months, analysts predicted.

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