Iraq Bloc Led by Maliki Seeks Talks With Rivals After Election

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki’s political bloc said it would hold talks with rival parties on forming a government after results showed the alliance leading in the March 7 parliamentary election.

With 66 percent of the national vote counted, al-Maliki’s State of Law group is ahead in seven of Iraq’s 18 provinces, the Independent High Electoral Commission announced yesterday. State of Law is leading so far in Baghdad, Iraq’s most populous city, and the major southern constituency of Basra.

The prime minister’s bloc will win about a third, “or more than 100,” of the 325 seats at stake, Abbas al-Bayati, a State of Law candidate, said by phone yesterday in Baghdad. “We have formed a small committee to go into talks, and we will make sure that we won’t close the door to anyone who wants to negotiate with us,” al-Bayati said.

The Iraqiya alliance of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi said it will win 80 to 90 seats. “We have started communicating with other parties,” Osama al-Najafi, an Iraqiya member, said by phone. “The doors of dialogue are open.”

The statements are in line with analysts’ predictions that no party or bloc will win a majority when the tally is complete. All contestants, including Kurdish blocs and other Shiite and Sunni Muslim alliances, are generally winning in areas of core sectarian support, according to preliminary results.

Coalition negotiations may last months, analysts said.

‘Significant Concessions’

“We have to wait and see by what kind of margins al-Maliki wins in each province,” Gala Riani, Middle East analyst for IHS Global Insight in London, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “If he is closely followed, it will be extremely difficult to form a government of his choice.”

Al-Maliki would probably have to make “significant concessions and assurances” during negotiations for a ruling coalition, Riani said, adding that the new government will have to be as inclusive as possible for the stake of stability.

Such uncertainty challenges President Barack Obama’s plan to reduce U.S. troop strength in Iraq from 96,000 to 50,000 by August. Violence may increase if Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds aren’t all included in a governing coalition, said Ahmed Ali, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Iraq pumped about 2.4 million barrels of crude oil a day last month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Its 115 billion- barrel reserves are behind only Saudi Arabia and Iran. The U.S., which led a 2003 invasion to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, is scheduled to pull out all its troops by the end of 2011.

Rival Shiite Group

State of Law, dominated by al-Maliki’s Shiite Dawa Party, is winning most southern provinces, which are mainly populated by Shiite. A rival Shiite-led group, the Iraqi National Alliance, is leading in three southern provinces.

“We’re very heartened by the whole flow of the process,” said Fred Lash, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department, in a telephone interview March 14. “The election has gone very smoothly so far.”

Lash declined to comment on the outcome of the election until an official determination is made by the commission.

Iraqiya, whose candidates ran on a non-sectarian platform, is ahead in four Sunni provinces plus Tamim province, which includes Kirkuk, an oil-rich city beset by tensions between Arabs, Turkoman and Assyrian groups on one side and Kurds on the other. Sunnis, once bedrock supporters of deposed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, boycotted parliamentary elections in 2005.

Rival Alliances

Ibrahim Bahr al-Ulum, a National Iraqi Alliance candidate, said in an interview March 14 that his bloc may be 10 seats behind al-Maliki’s. “We are open to all parties,” he said about possible coalition negotiations.

Kurdistan Alliance member Tania Talaat said the group, which leads in three Kurdish provinces, would win 60 seats. It was too early to discuss talks, Talaat said in an interview. As far as the bloc is concerned, the key is resolution of a land dispute in and around Kirkuk, which the Kurds want to annex to their autonomous zone, Talaat said.

Al-Maliki’s government has rejected the Kurdish demand.

“Through discussion, the Kurdistan Alliance will work on ending the conflict,” Talaat said.

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